A student association at Bocconi University in Milan, built around prediction markets and probabilistic thinking.
Check the marketsThe name comes from Nassim Nicholas Taleb's 2007 book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Taleb, a former options trader, used the term for the rare events that decide outcomes and that everyone explains away afterwards.
That is what we work on. A prediction market forces you to put a number on the unlikely thing instead of ignoring it, and then holds you to that number when the question resolves.
Three of the five are investment research, each pricing its own domain and pitching what it finds. The other two work on the markets themselves: how they behave, and the models underneath.
01
We cover the markets tied to macroeconomic and political outcomes, from central bank decisions and inflation data to elections, trade policy and geopolitics. We watch how they take in new information, and measure their probabilities against the polls, forecasts and data.
Central banks · Macro data · Elections & policy
Most traded today
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot
02
We apply prediction markets to corporate and financial events, from company earnings and industry rankings to the course of an acquisition: what the buyer pays, how the tender offer and the negotiations go, and whether the deal closes at all.
Earnings · Industry rankings · M&A
Most traded today
Largest Company end of October 2026?
NVIDIA
03
We work outside traditional finance, on crypto, weather, public appearances and mention markets. We watch how these markets respond to real-world information, and compare the probabilities across sources to see how expectations form and where they disagree.
Crypto · Weather · Appearances & mentions
Most traded today
What price will Bitcoin hit in October?
Reaches $85,000
04
We study the markets themselves, publishing market reports and statistical research on what prediction markets reveal once they have closed.
Closed markets · Statistical analysis · Price drivers
05
We look for alpha in prediction markets through statistical models and systematic trading, turning research ideas into testable strategies through algorithm design and backtesting.
Statistical models · Backtesting · Systematic trading
Prices from Polymarket, as of 18 October at 08:37 Milan time.
60+ members across five divisions
Members in their second and third year help with internships, CVs and recruiting, and with whatever else you are stuck on.
Events with people who trade, research and build for a living, and a drink together often enough that you know everyone in the room.
Research notes and market reports go out under your name, so there is real work to point at by the end of the year.
We are in the building stage, so what the society becomes over the next two years is largely down to the people joining now.
Applications
Applications are closed for this round
This round closed on 27 September. The next one will be announced here and on Instagram.
Closed
Timeline